Used EVs Are Getting Pricier—and a New State Rebate Just Changed the Math

I spent 25 years inside dealerships, and one of the first things I tell EV shoppers is this: the advice you heard last year may be actively costing you money this month. For two straight years the smart play on a used electric car was to wait—prices kept sliding, so patience paid. That script just flipped. This summer the numbers are moving against buyers who are still waiting for a bottom that already passed, and at the same time a brand-new state program is putting real money back on the hood if you know how to grab it. Let me walk you through what actually changed and exactly what to do about it at the desk.

The Reversal Nobody Warned You About

Here's the headline that surprised even the analysts: used EVs are appreciating. <cite index="15-6">"Used EVs are appreciating, which almost never happens,"</cite> according to a recent Recurrent analysis, and that runs directly against what we normally call the law of used cars—cars go down in value, not up. What makes it stranger is the timing. <cite index="15-1">The price growth for used EVs this year has been all the more surprising because it has happened despite a high supply of used EVs hitting the market—which, all else being equal, would generally cause prices to fall.</cite>

Normally a flood of supply crushes prices. This year demand is fighting back. <cite index="17-1,17-2">Recurrent compared the same make and model-year vehicles in January and June, and across 108 make-model-year combinations with adequate sample sizes, prices rose 5.1% on a volume-weighted basis.</cite> The supply is real too—<cite index="15-3">Recurrent expects more than 500,000 leased EVs to return to market as used cars this year, and even more next year.</cite> So why aren't prices dropping? Buyers are showing up in force.

The biggest driver is what's happening at the gas pump. <cite index="15-11,15-12">Among the factors juicing demand are high gasoline prices due to the Iran war, which have pushed more consumers to consider fuel-efficient options; average gas prices in the U.S. were about $4.10 per gallon as of July 27—up roughly 31% from $3.12 a year earlier.</cite> And it's not just EVs—<cite index="15-14">prices for 3-year-old hybrid vehicles were up 3% in the first half of the year, according to Edmunds.</cite> What this means for you: if you've been sitting on the fence waiting for a cheaper used EV or hybrid, the fence is getting more expensive to sit on.

What This Actually Means at the Desk This Month

Don't misread me—this is not a panic-buy signal. It's a stop-waiting signal. The free-fall that made procrastination profitable is over for most popular models, so the game is no longer about timing the exact bottom. It's about buying the right car at a fair local price before demand pushes it higher. The good news buried in all this: there is still a genuinely deep, affordable used EV market right now. <cite index="17-7">In 2026, more than half of used EV inventory is under $30,000, and 44% of used EVs sold in March went for under $25,000.</cite>

One important split to know before you shop: Teslas and everything else are behaving differently. In one recent comparison, <cite index="13-3">used EV prices rose sharply in the US while the overall used market softened, with Tesla models posting some of the biggest gains.</cite> Translation for your search: a used Tesla is likely to cost you more relative to a year ago than a comparable non-Tesla EV, so if budget is your first priority, widen your list beyond the obvious badge. The mainstream brands are where the softer pricing still lives.

My desk advice is unglamorous but it works: shop the total cost of ownership, not the listing price. Battery health, realistic range for your actual commute, insurance quotes, and how you'll charge matter more than shaving a few hundred dollars off a sticker. A cheap EV that doesn't fit your driving is expensive. A slightly pricier one that saves you at the pump every week can be the better deal—especially with fuel where it is right now.

The New State Money You Might Be Leaving Behind

If you're in California, there's a fresh development worth putting on your radar before you sign anything. <cite index="21-2">Governor Newsom announced that 13 major automakers are teaming up with the state to offer instant rebates to Californians buying or leasing their first zero-emission vehicle.</cite> The program is called MyFirstEV, and here's what makes it matter at the desk: <cite index="22-3">unlike a tax credit claimed after filing a tax return, the MyFirstEV incentive is designed to reduce the vehicle price directly at the dealership.</cite> That's point-of-sale money, not a wait-and-hope-at-tax-time refund.

The numbers, per the state: <cite index="19-1">the program will offer an instant $3,500 rebate on eligible new ZEVs and $1,750 on eligible used models,</cite> and there are guardrails you need to know. <cite index="20-5,20-6,20-7,20-8">Eligible vehicles are all zero emission—full battery electric cars, no hybrids; to get the full $3,500 on a new vehicle the MSRP must be under $50,000; for a used EV the $1,750 rebate only applies to cars that cost less than $25,000; and the rebate is only for first-time EV buyers.</cite> <cite index="21-1">Participating automakers include Ford, General Motors, Honda, Hyundai, Kia, Lucid, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Rivian, Subaru, Tesla, Toyota and Volvo.</cite>

One insider caution: don't assume it's live the day you walk in. <cite index="22-10,22-11">The legislation took effect immediately as a budget-related bill, but that does not mean dealerships could immediately begin issuing MyFirstEV rebates—the California Air Resources Board must still establish and administer the program, enter agreements with participating manufacturers, and issue the standards needed for implementation.</cite> So the move at the desk is simple: ask the dealer point-blank, "Is MyFirstEV live yet, am I eligible, and is that rebate already reflected in this out-the-door number?" If they can't answer clearly, get the deal in writing without the rebate assumed, and treat the rebate as a bonus you confirm separately—never let a salesperson bake an unconfirmed incentive into your payment to make the deal look better than it is.

The Bottom Line for Buyers Right Now

Here's the whole thing in plain English. The used EV market has quietly shifted from "wait and save" to "buy the right one before it gets pricier," driven by high gas prices and demand that's outrunning even a big wave of off-lease supply. The affordable inventory is still there—especially outside of Tesla—but it's a shop-smart moment, not a wait-forever one. And if you're a first-time EV buyer in California, there's real point-of-sale money coming that you should confirm rather than assume. Do your homework on battery health and total cost, and don't let the pump-price panic rush you into the wrong car.

If you've got a specific EV or hybrid deal in front of you and want a second set of eyes before you sign, that's exactly what my 30-Minute Deal Audit is for—$85, by phone or Zoom, your choice, where we go line by line through your out-the-door price, fees, rate, trade, and any rebate the dealer claims is included. You can also grab my free guides anytime at /free-guides. No pressure either way—I'd just rather you walk in knowing your numbers than find out later what the desk was really counting on.