The Split-Screen Market: Where Prices Are Bending in September

I spent 25 years inside dealerships, and the question I get most this month is some version of "Is now a good time to buy?" The honest answer is that there's no single market anymore—there's a split screen. On one side, a handful of models are selling so fast the dealer won't move a dime. On the other, whole segments are quietly softening and desks are hungrier than they'll admit. The trick isn't timing the whole market; it's knowing which screen your car is on before you walk in. Here's the read for September 2026, translated into what it means for you at the desk.

The Averages Are Lying to You

Every headline you've seen this summer says prices are "stable"—and technically that's true. <cite index="6-2,6-3">In July 2026, the average new car sold for $49,855, about 2% higher than a year ago, and used car prices stayed nearly flat.</cite> But here's the part the headline buries: <cite index="6-9,6-10">consumers have more control over prices than the headlines suggest, and much of the price growth comes from the choices car shoppers make.</cite> In plain English, the "average" is being dragged up by people buying loaded luxury trims—not by the base car you may actually want.

So don't let a salesperson use the scary $50,000 number as leverage on you. <cite index="6-6,6-7,6-8">Prices are not increasing quickly, and the average buyer paid only 1.9% more this July than last July—by historical standards, that's not bad, since most months over the past decade have seen growth closer to 3%.</cite> A flat market is a market where a prepared buyer wins. It means the dealer's cost isn't climbing out from under a fair offer while you negotiate.

The Fast-Movers: Don't Waste Your Breath

Some cars simply have no deal in them right now, and pushing on price is a waste of your time and theirs. <cite index="11-7">Recent inventory data shows the Toyota RAV4, Honda CR-V, Honda Civic, and Toyota Corolla all selling in under 20 days with no manufacturer incentives, and the Lexus GX turning over faster than dealers can restock it.</cite> <cite index="11-12,11-13">The Toyota 4Runner and RAV4 Plug-In Hybrid are seeing sub-25-day turns, with hybrids especially commanding full price.</cite> These are wonderful cars—just the wrong month to demand a discount.

This ties to a brand-level pattern worth knowing. <cite index="12-10,12-11,12-12">Toyota, Lexus, and Honda continue to run the tightest inventories, with Toyota around 33 days' supply—in stark contrast to the other end of the spectrum, where a brand like Ram has been sitting near a 127-day supply.</cite> <cite index="10-13,10-14">Low inventory gives dealers pricing power because limited supply reduces the need for incentives, though it also means a narrower range of options on popular trims and colors.</cite> If you have your heart set on a hot Toyota or Honda hybrid, my advice is to negotiate the fees and add-ons hard—because the sale price itself just isn't going to bend much this month.

Where You Actually Have Leverage

Now flip the screen. The same inventory data that protects the hot models exposes the soft ones. <cite index="11-15,11-16,11-17,11-18">Two numbers drive it: days on lot—past 60 days, dealers start losing money holding the car and your leverage grows—and monthly sell-through, where below roughly 15% incentives aren't fixing the problem, but above roughly 40% dealers have no reason to discount.</cite> A car parked past 60 days is costing the dealer floorplan interest every single day, and that pain is your opening.

Brand-wide, the softest spots are the overstocked houses. <cite index="10-15,10-16">Volkswagen dealers have been carrying an average supply nearly double the industry norm, and several Stellantis brands including Chrysler have continued to carry excess inventory.</cite> On the used side, the relief is uneven too. <cite index="1-13,1-15,1-16">Used pickup prices rose recently overall, but in the South and Southwest trucks saw the largest drop among categories, while in the Mid-Atlantic truck prices were climbing fastest.</cite> Meanwhile <cite index="1-22">used luxury cars posted the biggest price drop, down more than $600.</cite> Translation: if you want a used luxury sedan or an overstocked brand, this is your screen—push.

The Used-EV Wave Is the Real Bargain Story

If there's one genuinely fresh opportunity in this market, it's used electric vehicles. <cite index="1-18,1-19">Roughly 300,000 EVs are returning from leases in 2026, which dwarfs the roughly 123,000 that came back in 2025.</cite> That's not a rounding error—it's a flood, and floods push prices down. <cite index="20-7">Used EV supply is surging as the first big wave of 2022–2023 EV leases returns, putting downward pressure on pre-owned prices.</cite>

The result is a gap that's essentially never existed before. According to recent reporting, <cite index="20-9">used EVs now sit within about $1,300 of similar used gas cars—the narrowest gap on record.</cite> One caution the ads won't mention: <cite index="19-15,19-16">the federal used-EV credit of up to $4,000 is no longer available, but depreciation is still opening the door to a great deal.</cite> So don't shop for a phantom tax break—shop for a low-mileage, off-lease EV whose price has already fallen. <cite index="18-5">Just check charging capability, software updates, and cold-weather performance before you buy</cite>, and a certified pre-owned option is worth a look if battery durability worries you.

The One Segment That Stays Tight: Cheap Cars

Here's the flip side of the good news, and it's the corner of the market where you may need to move faster than feels comfortable. <cite index="4-4,4-9,4-10">Options under $15,000 are scarce, representing only about 16.4% of all used-car inventory, and buyers in that range will have the most trouble finding a satisfactory option.</cite> If that's your budget, waiting for a better price often just means the good ones sell out from under you. <cite index="4-8">Tight inventory at the bottom of the market means some buyers should move sooner rather than later.</cite>

And keep one insider tell in your back pocket: with overall supply back near normal, some salespeople still lean on the old "we can't get these" line to justify a high price. <cite index="15-4,15-5">Inventory levels are largely back to normal, but a lot of salesmen will still tell you they're supply-constrained to get you to pay more.</cite> Ask which specific model they mean—and check that model's own days-on-lot before you believe it.

So the September playbook comes down to this: figure out which screen your car is on before you argue price. If it's a fast-moving Toyota or Honda hybrid, protect yourself on fees instead of chasing a discount that isn't there. If it's an overstocked brand, a used luxury sedan, or an off-lease EV, push hard—the dealer needs you more than they'll let on. If your dream car is under $15,000, don't over-wait a market that's already thin. If you'd like a second set of eyes on your own numbers—the out-the-door price, the rate or money factor, the trade, and any add-ons—my 30-Minute Deal Audit ($85, by phone or Zoom, your choice) is a live, line-by-line look at your specific deal so you know exactly which screen you're on. No pressure, just clarity before you sign.